MLA Forecasts

Released in February the Meat and Livestock Association's forecasts make pleasant reading for sheep producers. With global lamb supplies tight the price outlook, at least for the first half of 2011, remains good. Prices in 2010 were 14% up on 2009 and the first cross ewe price in 2011 almost reached $360! With wool and skin prices also improving it bodes well for this year and is an opportunity to put some cash away in reserve.

Chart from "Weekly Times" Dec 23 2010

The Australian flock size will increase from the 67.7 million head in June 2010, probably to a touch over 69 million. The breeding ewe flock in June 2010 was 41.3 million so it has been the wool producing wethers that have declined most. This will be the first time since the 1990s where the flock size has been rebuilding.

For us the decision was whether to buy FX ewe lambs and hold for a year or to buy some Merino ewes and produce our own lambs. A difficult choice given the prices but we were lucky enough to source some good Merinos locally at the right price. It means that our sale in November will only be Border Leicester flock rams but it was the right choice.

The problem with high prices is that they will fall. Butchers and lamb processors are almost break even on a $230 lamb so if they are paying more it is because they are (super) heavyweight stock. We don't buy lamb from the supermarkets but the prices are extraordinary. It all feels to me like the prices are maxing out.
As an aside the market dominance of Coles and Woolworths is a major concern as they drive down for eggs, milk and other foods. As they are profit driven they don't care if they put producers to the wall as they will simply import the foodstuffs from overseas producers like Chile.

Time for some diversity (garlic, studio art glass and so on) and to stick with the best option for our local conditions - Border Leicesters and Merinos.

Still here!!

Despite the almost six month absence in entries we are still here and everything is going well.
Part of the delay was a 4 week holiday in Europe where we stayed in Paris, Pau, Barcelona, Florence, Rome, Venice and Cambridge. We had a great time and more on the trip at a later date. We are still going through the thousands of photographs that digital cameras now permit. We missed the Australian summer and consequently the flash floods. While not needing full replacement there is a ton of work to do in the paddocks that have river frontage. It wasn't the rising waters that caused the damage as the Tarlo River broke its banks but the flow of water back with all the debris.

At least now we have a tractor - the mighty Ford CY, a 75 horse power beast that we bought second hand. It is in great condition for a thirty five year old machine and will give us many years of use once we fix the alternator, lights, hydraulics and minor oil leaks!

Since coming back from Europe we have added 80 Merino ewes to the Border leicester Stud flock with the intention of producing Daramalan First Cross Ewes, drenched and injected all stock against Barber's Pole Worm and sown a mixture of Cocksfoot and Turnips on 30 acres. The alfalfa is doing really well despite the waterlogging and should give us feed for the next five years if we manage it correctly.

Next jobs are fence repairs, laying barbed wire strands to keep the Border Leicesters in their paddocks, ploughing up the house paddock, laying irrigation pipes in the same paddock and then planting it out. We will have an orchard, grape vines, olives and vegetables so that we move to self sufficiency. 

Better get onto it so back soon!!