Monday, September 28

The Butterfly Effect

No, not Pernille Rygg’s disturbing and unconventional detective novel set in modern day Oslo but the equally fascinating effects of chaos theory. The suggestion is that an Amazonian butterfly flapping its wings causes a chain reaction of vibrating molecules that eventuates in the Indian monsoon arriving late. It’s what makes weather forecasting so difficult on a daily basis and long term predictions an arcane and dark art.

Recently, researchers at Purdue University have put forward an interesting new proposition that suggests if it’s already raining then it’s going to pour and if it is dry then it will probably stay that way.

The scientists analysed 30 years of Indian monsoon data showing that levels of ground moisture where the ocean originating storm makes landfall is a major indicator of how the storm will behave and where the rain will fall. If the ground is wet the storm is likely to sustain and if the ground is dry ten the storm will calm and subsequently fizzle (a technical term apparently) out.

Sounds too simple but their model’s predictions were proven when compared to the 125 actual Indian monsoon events over the 33 years studied.

Perhaps we need to flood everything east of the Dividing Ranges to 500 metres above sea level to guarantee rain at Daramalan? Then I could buy that boat I have always wanted to get to the farmhouse.

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